We would not only like to extend our thank you’s to our colleagues who are continuing to work in these testing times, but would also like to thank your families for being by your sides supporting you through this.

We know not only have they got to deal with worrying about you, but they also have to worry about the difficult news that surrounds this virus which must give some additional worry.

We wanted, for a change, to give you a different view, while social distancing has been difficult for all, it’s importance can not be underrated. We spoke to Bill Gerrard, a Professor of Economics, who has been analysing the figures and impact of social distancing, but with regards to lives saved.

Bill states: 

What I want to do is focus on the positive consequences of observing the lockdown and the amazing efforts of everyone in the NHS by trying to estimate the number of Lives Saved. 

I have modelled the trends in both confirmed cases and deaths in order to estimate the total end-of-outbreak deaths and then updated this estimate every day when the latest data is published. 

I have defined Lives Saved as the reduction in the updated daily estimate of total end-of-outbreak deaths compared to the estimate of total end-of-outbreak deaths on 1st April. The latest calculation (as of 26th April) is 19,744 Lives Saved.

Link to piece: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-estimating-lives-saved-uk-bill-gerrard/